Predicting influenza vaccination


The influenza virus contributes significantly to morbidity and mortality each annual flu season. Although the vaccine has shown to reduce disease and economic burdens effectively, vaccination rates remain low at under 50% nationally. Prior research has focused on patient perceptions related to vaccination, but few studies have explored other factors related to flu vaccination during primary care visits.


We leveraged publicly available and objective electronic health record data to identify patients in our health system’s primary care practices who were eligible for vaccination at the time of a visit during flu season. We then designed prediction models to identify patient, physician, and environmental factors associated with flu vaccination.


We found that various patient, visit-level, temporal, provider, and weather variables significantly predicted vaccination status. These findings could help to inform the design of new, more targeted interventions.